NFL Week 6, Trevor Lawrence Sweepstakes, and more

Tanking for Trevor, Tannehill's Titans, and the Battle of Number 12

There is no Thursday night football. Instead, I will spend my Thursday enjoying a nice October heat wave and feeling sorry for Trevor Lawrence. The Junior QB for the Clemson Tigers has teams losing left and right in order to get their hands on him. However, there’s a price to be paid for going number one. Look at our buddy Burreaux in Cincy. 12 sacks and 19 QB hits in the past two weeks after we saw just a disgusting act (IYKYK) helmet to helmet collision in Week 3. Lawrence is undoubtedly the most NFL ready QB of the past decade and I can’t recall anyone since Peyton Manning being this highly touted. The only team that wouldn’t take him number one would be the Minnesota Timberwolves (PLEASE go look at this article and their draft miscues lol). Anyways, here are your Tanking contenders and how they stack up:

Pick Team Record SOS
1 New York Giants 0-5 .551
2 Atlanta Falcons 0-5 .571
3 New York Jets 0-5 .613
4 LA Chargers 1-4 .467
5 Washington FT 1-4 .494
6 JAX Jaguars 1-4 .555

The New York Football Giants - I know 0-5 is awful and a terrible record but I cannot quit the grit here. This team has been in nearly every game with Danny Dimes and plays in the worst division in Football History. They’ll squeak out a few and lose out on the chance for T-Law.

The Atlanta Falcons - They’ve got Matt Ryan, they’ll never bring in anyone else at QB. NOT SO FAST… here is where I LOVE a good QB coming in. Please for the LOVE of FOOTBALL hire Eric Bienemy (yes, I’m aware he’ll get an interview everywhere) and draft your future QB to sit behind Ryan for a year or two. Trevor, Justin Fields, or this new Carson Wentz Jr. guy, I don’t care who. Keep losing and get him. Unfortunately, Hotlanta’s upcoming schedule is cupcake city so they might end up rattling off some wins.

The New York Grounded Jets - THE JETS CAN’T EVEN WIN THE TANKING COMPETITION. I’ve been trying for 5 weeks to think positive and say something nice about Adam Gase. Here it is. Here’s something nice. He has led this team SO poorly that they likely have the best chance at the most NFL ready QB since Matt Leinart (Didn’t work out, but he was one hell of a college QB with the measurables). I did it, that was nice-ish. The reason I bring up Leinart is because the ol’ lefty gunslinger is just another one of the failed USC QB’s that end up on Fox Sports and Darnold isn’t ready yet. I haven’t given up on him and with anyone but Gase, I think he might have what it takes.. but if you’re the Jets, I think you have to restart and add picks for the young QB. Cut ties with your coach and draft a franchise altering QB for the next 20 years in Lawrence. It’ll be interesting to see just how they mess this up. Let’s get Darnold to the Colts with Coach Reich and see what he can do there. I’ll root for that.

The Chargers - They have their guy.

The WFT - I don’t know what we’re doing in Washington. Obviously, they’ve given up and ruined Dwayne Haskins. There’s no way that kid comes back mentally after throwing for over 300 yards and no interceptions then being benched. Honestly, I want an explanation from Rivera on that and for why you allow Alex Smith to go out there. You may have ruined a young man’s life here.

The Jaxonville Jaguars - I don’t think the Jags are as bad as the Jets but this will come down to the wire. With a loss to the Texans behind them, the divisional games are only getting tougher. We’ll see what these cats have in store for us.

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He was no lacrosse player, but Tannehill was a college receiver

As a Tuesday Night Football Rookie, I was completely embarrassed. I gave at least 50 people a “lock” of Bills -3 at Tennessee and am still paying the price for it. Ryan Flipping Tannehill, take a bow. Check this out:

Yes, you’re reading that correctly. While we oooooh and ahhhh over Mahomes (and rightfully so), Ryan the Receiver has been BETTER. It’s time we take a deep look into that team and stop calling them a bunch of Henry Riders. Tannehill is ballin’ and deserves all the credit in the world. He’s reinvigorated Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and given Derrick Henry the ability to stiff arm people into Elon’s space stations. This is the exact same team that went 9-10 with their first round Hawaiian darling Mariota. Plug in a healthy Tannehill and they’re undefeated in 2020 after making a near Super Bowl run in 2019. Give the man some credit please. Also, Arthur Smith will be a head coach in the next 1.5 years.

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Enough about the bottom feeders and last year. Let’s get into the games that matter.

Thursdays without football are bad for us. Please don’t let that happen til February @NFL. Going into Week 6, we actually have some data on these teams and things start to even out. Good teams start to win. Bad teams continue to lose. Historically, Weeks 6-9 are the easiest to bet on. Things start to make sense as we see teams start playing against common opponents, strength of schedules, and clarity emerges. LET’S RIDE!

WEEK 6 - Sunday, October 18th

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Odds: Pats -9, 45.5 (THIS LINE WILL CHANGE. Lock and Newton are going to play so let’s wait it out to see what the final line is.)

Here we have two teams that have not played in two weeks. The Patriots are coming off of a COVID-19 delay since their last outing and the Broncos are returning from a Thursday night victory over the New York Jets + a bye. They allowed 28 points. To the Jets. That should really be all you need to know here. Add that to extra preparation time for Señor Belichick and you may be in trouble. Melvin Gordon is a game time decision after drunkenly going 1.5X the legal speed limit through downtown on a Tuesday. The Denver rushing attack is weak anyways, but the threat of Lock’s rocket should help a little. Cam Newton will return to get the Patriots back on track offensively. Look for a bounce back game for JE11 and consistent New England rushing attack. You’ll see five different players carry the ball. Pats 27-16 and we’re on to San Francisco.

PICK: LOVE New England up to -8.5

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Odds: Panthers -2.5, 44.5

What week is this? How many times have the Bears burned Baby Belichick? 4. Yep, I’ve bet against them four out of five weeks and you better BELIEVE I’m not doing it again. Teddy Covers and the Panthers are at home and coming off an impressive divisional trap game that they typically lose every year but I officially am back on board with what the Bears are doing defensively. I hate this pick more than I hate watching the Dodgers win baseball games, but the Panthers can’t contain Allen Robinson (MOST Targets in the NFL thru Week 5). Nagy has had an extra half week to draw up some stupid plays that will work late in the second half. The Bears are going to be the worst 5-1 team of ALL TIME, get ready for it. This pick isn’t really about the Bears though, it’s time for America to give Bridgewater the credit he deserves. Teddy Tripod (IYKYK) is no career backup QB. Carolina can build here with he and Mccaffrey.

PICK: Bears +2.5

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars**LOCK**
Odds: Jags +3.5, 54.5

Defense? I never knew her. Matty Patricia, your neighborhood rocket scientist, has not figured out how to lead his own team after having such defensive success under Belichick. However, the Lions are the healthiest team in America and come into Northeast Florida fully rested. Golladay, Dola, and Marvin Jones Jr. should give Stafford plenty of opportunity to tear up this terrible Jags D. It’s also about time Stafford got some help from the running back committee of Peterson and Swift. I like Detroit big in this game against the Jaguars defense allowing 416.8 yards per game. I’m laying the points and rolling with the Lions on Sunday.

PICK: Lions -3.5 **LOCK**

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 51)
Odds: Steelers -3.5, 51

Guess which of these teams is Number 1 in the NFL in Turnovers, Rushing YPG, and Number 5 against the run. Yep, the Browns. This team is legit and let me tell you… If they can finally get some touchdown passes from the QB and not WRs every game, this team is very legit. While two of their four wins have come against the NFC Least, they’re doing what good teams do, they beat the bad teams. This week they’re heading east to big brother’s house, Heinz House of Horrors, if you will. The Browns haven’t won a game at Pittsburgh in seventeen years. This vaunted Steelers defense has lightened up a bit as of late allowing 10/14 third downs to be converted against Wentz and his scrubs last week. Their weakness is allowing deep throws, not something Baker is good at. Look for TJ Watt and Bud Dupree to be flying around against the 31st worst team against the pass rush. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers offense hasn’t even scratched the surface yet. Claypool just learned the playbook and had four TD’s last week. Let’s not forget about JuJu, Conner, Snell, Washington, and Johnson streaking down the sideline. I like what Stefanski is doing, but this Steelers team is not getting enough attention. We’ll be seeing them at Arrowhead in late January. I like the Steelers by a score.

PICK: Steelers -3.5

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: Bucs +1 54

Get your popcorn ready. This will likely be the most watched sporting event of the weekend as their only competition is the Dolphins Jets game in the afternoon window. Tampa Bay is the best team in football against the run and they need to win this game more than the Packers do. The Packers defense has been rough per usual (wasting Rodgers’ career) allowing 34, 21, 30, and then 16 to a dysfunctional Falcons team. They’re going to allow Brady time to find his receivers and pick the defense apart. HOWEVER, there is just something missing for me with Arians. The Bucs commit more penalties than anyone and blew a sure win to Nick Foles last week. Now they’ve got Rodgers coming to town with Aaron Jones, a healthy Davante Adams, and a fully loaded team off a bye. I see the Packers coming out FAST with Adams and slapping the Fighting Jack Sparrow's in the mouth. We’ll see if they have an answer. Look for a petty Rodgers to show off in the battle of two GOATs and the Packers to cement themselves as NFC Frontrunners.

PICK: Packers -1 (CLOSE GAME. If you can get more than 2.5 somewhere, take the Bucs)

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Odds: 49ers +3.5, 50

Listen, the 49ers got throttled last week by the Miami Dolphins while the Rams moved to 4-1. Let’s not get too crazy here and overreact. These are still division rivals who know eachother very well. The Rams wins are only the teams in the NFC least.. Nothing to hang your hat on there. Here’s why Baby Belichick thinks the 49ers aren’t quite dead yet. The Rams are the 25th ranked defense against the run and the 49ers will come out to win this line of scrimmage. You can strategically trap Donald inside and keep him away from the zone reads we’ve seen them execute a million times. They have been decimated by injuries at a rate we’ve never seen before but Jimmy G cannot possibly play any worse than last week. If Garopollo can find any kind of help on the outside from the young receiving core, I think the 49ers can hang in this game at home. Their defense is built to contain short passes and Richard Sherman should play. I’m not going to sit here and tell you they’ll win outright but look for a big bounce back performance here from the Bay Area boys. This team was in the Super Bowl just before we knew COVID’s name!

PICK: 49ers +3.5

Monday, October 19th

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Odds: Bills +3, 57

Here’s the bottom line, actually two bottom lines. This is NOT the Buffalo Bills we’re accustomed to. Tannehill and the Titans shredding them was no fluke. This defense is NOT good. Other bottom line - You cannot stop the Chiefs offense, HOWEVER you can prevent big plays and that irks Patty Mahomes more than anything. The kid just wants to sling it (on and off the field, congrats on the sex and your new kid). Back to the X’s and O’s... The San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders respectively blitz the 3rd and 4th least in the NFL. Actually, the Raiders only blitzed Mahomes 5 times over the entire football game last week. They dropped 7-8 guys and made Mahomes dump the ball underneath. Next, look at the Ravens game… The one time this season we’ve seen the Chiefs flex… The Ravens blitzed on 64% of the snaps. Coincidence? No. NFL defensive coordinators are stubborn and Buffalo likes to get after the QB at the 8th highest rate in the league… We’ll see what happens. If you don’t drop back into quarters coverage you’re BBQ CHICKEN for Mahomes and co. After reading this entire paragraph, please know one thing and one thing only. The Chiefs are the new Warriors. They don’t care what the score is or where they’re playing, they know they can come out in the 3rd quarter and hang 40 points on you to win comfortably. Coming off a loss, the Champs will be motivated earlier than usual. Chiefs by a chunk in an EARLY Monday Night Football episode. Don’t forget to check your local listings.

PICK: Chiefs -3

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Odds: Cowboys +2.5, 54.5

Arizona has beat down Flacco, Haskins, and Garopollo and lost to Stafford and Bridgewater. How do you quantify the difference between Dak and Dalton? This game was Cowboys -2.5/3 in the look ahead spread with a healthy Prescott. Dak was turning the ball over religiously, but I don’t think this offense will falter too much. These Cowboys can still ride Zeke and allow their speed on the outside to terrorize secondaries. HOWEVER, this Dallas defense is sorry. I mean they are turrrrrrible; surrendering at least 34 points in each of their last four games. The Cardinals just lost their best player, Chandler Jones, but still have Kyler and company slinging it on offense. I look at the 2020 Cardinals and see what the Cowboys should be. Unlimited offensive talent with a defense that should want to prove itself. I’ll take the Allen Eagle hall of famer in a Texas shootout. Good teams beat bad teams. Let’s see if the Cardinals continue on their journey to being a good team. Cardinals 34 Cowboys 30.

PICK: Arizona -2.5 BUT NOT MORE. Watch this line as I expect a lot of movement before kickoff. Collin Cowherd already sold America on Dalton being a legit substitute so let’s see where the money comes in.

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Other Games

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Odds: Vikings -3.5, 55.5
PICK: VIKINGS -3.5

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Odds: Titans -5.5, 55
PICK: Texans +5.5 Titans win, but fail to cover

Washington Football Team at New York Giants
Odds: Giants -3, 43
PICK: Giants -3 - STAY AWAY

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: Eagles +8, 46.5
PICK: Ravens -8

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Odds: Colts -8, 46.5
PICK: Cincy +8 - Joey Covers

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Odds: Dolphins -8, 47.5
PICK: Dolphins -INFINITY (DOLPHINS are back to .500)

OVERALL ATS Record: 43-33-1

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